This research committee was established to consider long-term international regimes to address global warming, focusing on the development and diffusion of innovative energy technologies. It held four meetings chaired by Prof. Mitsutsune Yamaguchi (Visiting Professor, Tokyo University) with outside speakers or member presenters and government officials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as observer.

Following issues are identified in this research:
It is impossible for the international community to conclude a global agreement on specific level of GHG emissions reductions toward the ultimate goal. However, stabilization at any concentration levels would require substantial GHG emissions cut. To that end, innovative technologies are necessary and any future international regime must induce such technological innovation effectively.

In this research, key energy technologies to bring low-carbon societies and the magnitude of them are identified based on various model analyses. Also, committee members have discussed what international frameworks should be established to realize full technological potentials.

Main Conclusions of This Research study is as follows:

• To effectively achieve the stabilization of atmospheric concentration of GHG emissions, a broad range of technology options are required :
  The integrated assessment model analysis indicates that in future following measure should be deployed and diffused extensively at minimal cost under the constraint of given GHG concentration and energy demand in order to establish an optimal energy system: energy saving, energy switch to low-carbon energy sources, carbon capture sequestration (CCS) technology.
  
• However, technological challenges for respective technologies should be addressed :
  Long-term exogenous assumptions for each technology option were produced based on the model analysis, which predict that reduced cost and improved efficiency. However, it is uncertain whether or not they are economically or technically feasible.
  
• Huge amount of energy-related investment will be required, although it could be reduced substantially with a long-term vision for low-carbon societies :
  To meet growing global energy demand, some US $20 trillion investment would be needed. By 2100, the least investment amount would be needed under a long-term scenario with a sustainable society. Thus, it is vital for governments to uphold a long-term vision because future selection of economy and society would have a great impact on the investment.
  
• The energy sector tends to be less innovative than other sectors due to its competitive environment driven by product prices instead of product properties :
  Marginal productivity improves as its learning curve rises in tandem with economic growth that would help mature technologies. Although technological innovation could be catalyzed in such spiral, it is not so much the case with energy sector. Because energy-related infrastructure including power plants has a relatively longer lifespan of 40-50 years, it takes longer time for the innovative technology to reach the market in energy sector.
  
• Government funding for R&D investment is vital to develop innovative technologies :
  R&D investment by private sector alone will not be sufficient because some businesses are hesitant to make large-scale energy investment that would involve high risks or high uncertainty and because they cannot necessarily monopolize the result of R&D. Thus, massive government-led energy investments are required for research and development in energy sector.
  
• International frameworks such as the Asia Pacific Partnership (APP) where fewer but major emitters are involved could achieve emissions reduction more effectively and efficiently than binding national targets as in the Kyoto Protocol where only developed countries except the US are committed :
  A model analysis suggests that the APP framework could achieve cost-effective emissions reduction. Even though APP has only six member countries, its reduction potentials are larger than that of the current Kyoto Protocol
  
• Given its technological learning curve, a long-term target could induce technological innovation, thereby achieving reduction goals at lower cost, when compared with a short-term numerical target as in the Kyoto Protocol :
  Along with a bottom-up international approach like the APP, a top-down approach would be required to achieve low-cost emissions cut. Global long-term goals for 2050 and beyond would facilitate national governments to adopt their technological strategies, focusing on future technology potentials.
  
• Our next agenda should include consideration of long-term goals for Japan in future :
  The research committee aimed at identifying the size of diffusion and investment that technology options would require and respective potentials and limitations and discussed various post-Kyoto frameworks including bottom-up and long-term target approaches. Specific considerations are needed on both global and national long-term goals that the Government of Japan should uphold.