Intellectuals to Contribute for the Creation of a New Global System

Shinji Fukukawa
President and CEO
Dentsu Soken Co.
Senior Advisor
Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute

There are only four years remained before the 2lst Century. In what was called the "Turn of the Century" phenomena, the stagnancy and decadence filled the mood at the end of the 19th century. The people of the end of the 20th Century, on the other hand, find them-selves engulfed in the feelings of insecurity and restraints as they fail to establish a new world system in the post cold war era. Yet, as the United States were preparing to take a center stage at the end of the 19th Century, we are seeing today the rise of East Asian countries. Around the end of the 19th Century, the industries were approaching more advanced stage of capitalism system with petroleum, a so-called "material for the second industrial revolution," being a pillar. Now, the so-called third industrial revolution of the communication technology innovation is drawing a new cycle of growth.

The 21st Century must be a century to explore a new frontier with all these nows of changes merging to make a large tide. The system, however, should be quite different from what we have accustomed to and appreciated for. It is quite certain that the innovation of communication technologies will bring the level-ing of the powers of nations. The revolution in communication technology shall release business entities beyond the spheres of "time," "distance," and/or "venue," and invite economies to get borderless. At the same time, it will encourage business entities to transfer to the regions of cost advantages. This will equalize the economic growths and per capita income, and thus level the power of nations, inevitably.

If the world reaches such multipolar state, the international organizations such as the United Nations, International Court of Judiciary, and World Trade Organization (WTO) are expected to form a nucleus for maintaining the world order. With no presence of superpowers, we should rely on such international organizations as a converging force.

Also conceivable is the formation of alliances among nations with common interests, since it will be more advantageous for a group of countries to raise voice in global politics. The formation and structuring of EU, NAFTA and ASEAN may represent the emergence of such trend.

The business firms will definitely augment their presence in the world market. If the range of business activities, that used to be within national boundaries since the 19th century, extends beyond boundaries, the presence of business firms will grow further in the fields of technology development and employment provisions.

The significance of urban development, also, will increase drastically. As the economic activities become more borderless, people's interests will shift from defense and politics to culture and economy. Urban areas provide the sites of living cultures closest to people, and will act as the place to promote cultural development and international exchanges. The recent formation of an international city network symbolizes such trends.

Furthermore, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) will surely expand their spheres of activities both domestically and internationally. Already,we have seen the remarkable achievements of NGOs in the abolition of nuclear weapons, conservation of global environment, and the works on poverty relief. Through extensive use of internet, the internar tional networking of NGOs is progressing rapidly, so they are expected to earn greater "saying" in international community. When the international community gets multi-dimensional, and the major players of the world order become more diversified, it is essential to have highly effectual vision and concept to maintain a core in both politics and economics. A way for Japan to win the trust of the world is to search for such vision and concept.

Humans in the 2lst century must face the challenges of new global issues: population growth, food supply security, destruction of global environment, and energy shortage. We used to believe that the earth could recover from any level of anthropogenic pollution, and continued the economic activities on the assumption that the earth's resources and energy supplies were limitless. This is no longer true.

The world's population has quadrupled in the 20th century, and will be doubled from the current level by the middle of the 2 1 st century. To reduce the global environmental burden, we must control population growth, and the quickest way to do so will be to raise the standard of living as our historic experiences tell. The elevation of living standard, on the other hand, will increase energy consumption, and thus invite environmental pollution, Today's agriculture has higher energy dependency. If we are to intensify agricultural production to resolve food shortage, it will increase energy consumption, accelerate global warming and acid rains, and degrade soil quality.

It is my belief that today's world is trapped in these two cycles of adversaries, and it is the matter of urgency to gather all the wisdom and knowledge accumulated in the academic societies of the world for us to flee from these cycles.

In December of this year, the Third Conference of Parties (COP3) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Kyoto. The success and failure of this Conference will affect the proposal I stated herein. Undoubtedly, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will strengthen their efforts to address the global issues such as population, food supply, energy, and environment. In the private sec-tor, also, various research and technology development will proceed through the activities of business firms and NGOs. It is required to us intellectuals to offer maximum contribution in the creation of a new world system and the resolving of global issues.